Swing states: a deep dive into the states that will decide the U.S. Presidential Election
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are intensifying their campaigns in seven key swing states that will determine the presidential election outcome. Let's delve into these pivotal states.
In 2020, swing states leaned Democratic
During the last presidential election, most swing states chose Democrat Joe Biden, with North Carolina as the lone exception, which sided with Republican Donald Trump.
In 43 states and the District of Columbia, the outcome is practically a foregone conclusion; the U.S. election will likely be decided in just seven states, where candidates have concentrated their outreach efforts with a barrage of ads and rallies. These swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina—can pivot from one party to another from one election to the next. Here, candidates must achieve two main goals: turnout, or mobilizing their base to vote, and, to a lesser extent, persuading undecided voters to their side.
Swing state voting patterns since 1976
Kamala Harris’s battle is fought in the suburbs of major cities, aiming to engage young black voters, and in rural zones, largely aligned with Trump. Polls predict a tight race, where every vote in these states will count. It’s the “winner-takes-all” rule: the candidate who wins in a state claims all its electoral votes, with two exceptions—Maine and Nebraska, where votes are allocated proportionally. The magic number for victory? 270 out of 538 electors.
These seven states each have unique dynamics. From the Arizona-Mexico border, to Las Vegas casinos, to Atlanta’s suburbs, and North Carolina’s universities, extending to the Rust Belt running from the Great Lakes to the Appalachians, let’s explore the American swing states.
Pennsylvania: 13 million people, 19 Electoral Votes
Winning Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes could mean winning the presidency. Historically, securing a win in Pennsylvania’s 7th district has been synonymous with claiming the White House. “The state is like a microcosm of the U.S.,” explains Agnès Trouillet, an American Studies lecturer at Paris-Nanterre University who previously taught at the University of Pennsylvania. It has progressive areas on the East Coast near Philadelphia and in the West around Pittsburgh, with a vast conservative stretch in between. The cradle of American democracy, Pennsylvania is also where Joe Biden was born, spending his early years in the small town of Scranton. Just over 76,000 residents call Scranton home, and it’s also the setting of Dunder Mifflin, the iconic paper company from The Office.
In the mid-19th century, the Rust Belt attracted Central European workers, creating a strong unionized, white working-class base that leaned Democratic—until Trump’s 2016 victory, in which he narrowly won the state by 44,000 votes over Hillary Clinton. “Disillusioned with unfulfilled Democratic promises, this working-class community felt abandoned and betrayed by Washington,” says Trouillet. “Trump’s promise to bring factories back to America resonated with these rural Pennsylvania communities, while Clinton’s campaign wrongly assumed the state was a given.” In 2020, Biden flipped the outcome, narrowly securing Pennsylvania.
Over a quarter of the state’s population lives in rural areas. “One must truly understand the rural character of the United States and its conservatism,” adds Trouillet. “In Pennsylvania, it’s as simple as driving outside Pittsburgh to find yourself in open countryside.”
Just thirty miles from the state’s major western city lies Butler, a small town where an assassination attempt on Trump on July 13 during a rally left a deep impression on a community already loyal to the former president. “The event served as a catalyst, reigniting support among his conservative base, especially since he returned shortly after.” Two weeks ago, Trump visited Butler again, this time accompanied by one of his loudest supporters: Elon Musk, clad in an “Occupy Mars” T-shirt and MAGA cap, who has become a fervent campaign ally.
Michigan: 10 million people, 15 Electoral Votes
“Get out and vote, please!” From the podium, rapper Eminem, born Marshall Bruce Mathers III, fired up the Detroit crowd Tuesday night before Barack Obama took the stage to campaign for Kamala Harris. The former president praised the artist by quoting from the iconic song Lose Yourself from 8 Mile, named after the road dividing Detroit’s upscale white suburbs from its predominantly Black urban center. For Michigan Democrats, the challenge is to avoid a repeat of 2016, when this Great Lakes state, once part of the “Blue Wall” of consistently Democratic states, helped propel Trump to the White House.
Winning support from the unions is critical in Michigan, where blue-collar roots run deep. While the president of the United Auto Workers union (one of North America’s largest) is campaigning for Harris, Trump is counting on support from steelworkers in more rural factories. Here, too, the campaign is shadowed by the effects of deindustrialization. “A few years ago, I visited my son at the University of Michigan,” recalls David Sylvan, a U.S. specialist and professor emeritus of political science at IHEID. “Detroit had transformed—areas once filled with homes and factories had turned into cornfields. These profound changes reduced the size of the Democratic-leaning electorate likely to vote.”
Another factor unique to Michigan is its sizable Arab American community—a traditionally Democratic constituency, yet disappointed by U.S. foreign policy on Israel. “There’s also a large youth population around the University of Michigan,” says Ludivine Gilli, a historian and director of the North America Observatory at the Jean Jaurès Foundation. “The Palestinian issue is important to Arab Americans and these young voters, and while it doesn’t outweigh economic concerns, it could lead some of these voters to abstain or even vote for Trump.”
Wisconsin: 5.8 million people, 10 Electoral Votes
The birthplace of Orson Welles (and of Barbie, whose fictional hometown is Willows, according to Wikipedia), Wisconsin is also the largest cheese-producing state in the U.S., a tradition passed down from 19th-century Swiss immigrants. Along the shores of Geneva Lake sits Lake Geneva, just 60 miles from New Glarus—welcome to Walworth County, which voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. The upcoming election may once again hinge on a thin margin; in the past two elections, fewer than 30,000 votes separated Democrats and Republicans.
Wisconsin’s agrarian voters have a strong interest in trade policies, making it a complex political landscape. “In addition to a rural Republican base, there was lower voter turnout among African Americans in urban centers like Milwaukee and Madison,” Gilli explains. “In 2016, just a small drop in Democratic turnout allowed Trump to win the state. Republicans understand this well—they held their July convention in Milwaukee.” Democrats understand it too; Harris kicked off her campaign in Wisconsin’s largest city.
Georgia: 11 million residents, 16 electoral votes
Just 11,779 small votes. In 2020, twenty-four hours after polls closed, Georgians still didn’t know who they had chosen to send to the White House. In this Deep South state, Joe Biden’s victory was only announced by the American media at dawn on November 5, two days after the election. A victory contested by Donald Trump, who has since been indicted for attempting to pressure an election official, saying: “Man, I need 11,000 votes, give me a break!”
This was the first time since 1992 that the state—home to figures like Jimmy Carter, Ray Charles, and Scarlett O'Hara from Gone with the Wind—elected a Democratic candidate. Biden’s win was made possible by the mobilization of African American voters, who make up 30% of Georgia's population. The growth of urban centers and, particularly, Atlanta’s suburbs has drawn an educated electorate, shifting the political balance. “More than 60% of the state’s population now lives in or around Atlanta,” explains Ludivine Gilli. “In general, Black voters tend to vote Democrat, as does the educated electorate. Combining these two factors was enough to tip the balance, which had previously leaned Republican.”
But in Georgia, victory is far from assured for Democrats. They face a significant challenge: the uncertain support of young Black men. “Older or female voters will likely back Kamala Harris,” Gilli continues, “but young Black men show some disillusionment with the Democrats. Even though they tend to vote in low numbers—only around 12% in the midterm elections—it still matters in such a tight race.” To maximize their chances, the Democratic candidate has entrusted former President Barack Obama with the crucial task of persuading these undecided voters.
North Carolina: 10.4 million residents, 16 electoral votes
Once a beacon of progressivism in the South, North Carolina elected Clarence Lightner as mayor of Raleigh in 1973, making him the first African American to lead a major Southern city. “But since then, North Carolina has turned Republican,” says IHEID Professor David Sylvan. In 2008, the state contributed to Barack Obama’s first victory but has voted Republican in every election since. In fact, North Carolina was the only swing state that chose Donald Trump in 2020. Trump has secured the support of evangelical Christians, who make up about 35% of the state’s population. But the Republican margin has been shrinking: in 2020, only 1.3 percentage points separated Trump from Biden.
As in Georgia, rapid demographic growth in the urban centers of Charlotte and Raleigh is changing the political landscape, giving Democrats a golden opportunity to make gains. “The state has also invested in its universities,” Sylvan adds. “The ‘Research Triangle’ formed by the prestigious universities of North Carolina State University, Duke, and the University of North Carolina has attracted tens of thousands of people working in high-tech industries—people who are generally more inclined to support Democratic causes.” The urban African American population, which accounts for 20% of the state’s residents—including icons like Michael Jordan—also leans Democratic.
The impact of Hurricane Helene, which left at least 95 people dead in the state, could also work in the Democrats' favor. “The counties hardest hit by the hurricane were those that heavily supported Donald Trump in 2020,” Gilli notes. “And experience shows that voter turnout declines in areas affected by natural disasters, often because many people are displaced.”
On November 5, North Carolina will also elect its governor. The current Democratic frontrunner is competing against a particularly polarizing Republican candidate, Mark Robinson. A staunch gun-rights advocate and frequent source of homophobic and Islamophobic comments, Robinson was the subject of a CNN investigation that revealed he once referred to himself as a “Black Nazi” on internet forums about a decade ago.
Arizona: 7.3 million residents, 11 electoral votes
Arizona saw Joe Biden win in 2020, following Bill Clinton in 1996, but has otherwise voted Republican since 1952.
Electoral uncertainty here is largely driven by significant demographic shifts over the last two decades, with the Hispanic population rising from 25% in 2000 to one-third today. The cause? “The real estate boom of the early 2000s created a strong demand for labor in the construction sector, a demand largely met by immigrant workers,” explains Stephen Nuno-Perez, a professor in Northern Arizona University’s Department of Politics and International Affairs. This demographic is also young, accounting for over half of the students in K-12 (kindergarten through middle school). These young Hispanics are gradually gaining voting rights and lean far more to the left than their elders.
Another demographic shift is the influx of Californians, often young and more likely to vote Democrat, who are moving to Arizona to escape high living costs. Many are settling in Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, a traditionally Republican stronghold. Between 2021 and 2022 alone, more than 74,000 people from California moved to Arizona, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Maricopa County, which represents nearly 60% of Arizona’s electorate, saw a 47.2% population increase between 2000 and 2022. Its population has also diversified: while White residents made up 66.5% of the population in 2000, they now represent “only” 53%.
Two issues dominate Arizona’s concerns for the presidential election: immigration and abortion rights. Both will be on the ballot on November 5, with Proposition 314 aiming to make illegal border crossing a state crime, and Proposition 139 aiming to guarantee a fundamental right to abortion.
Nevada: 3 million residents, 6 electoral votes
Neither red nor blue, Nevada has become a purple state. In 2020, Joe Biden had only a 33,000-vote lead over Donald Trump. “But we can still say it’s leaning more blue after long being Republican,” David Sylvan notes. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections in Nevada. In a state with the highest unemployment rate in the U.S. (5.5%), both candidates are vying to win over Hispanic voters, who make up around 20% of the population. Many work in the entertainment industry in Las Vegas or Reno.
Economic issues are central here. “Even though the U.S. economy is relatively strong, inflation has hit people hard, making many feel that the situation is difficult,” Gilli explains. In Nevada, this perception is more pronounced: the economy took longer to recover, and was particularly impacted by COVID, with unemployment peaking at 28% during the pandemic. The state is also facing an unprecedented housing crisis, partly driven by an influx of Californians (about 40% of new residents), whose average income is roughly 93% higher than that of Nevada residents, according to NPR.
As in Arizona, Nevada voters will also decide on November 5 whether to enshrine the right to abortion in the Constitution. This is a welcome opportunity for Democrats, who hope that voters supporting abortion rights will also cast their ballots for Kamala Harris.